Placement of Nepal from Potential Disaster Threat

Experts in Nepal have expressed concern over levels of earthquake preparedness after the recent disaster in Haiti. According to experts, the main source of seismic activity in Nepal is the seduction of the Indian plate under the Tibetan plate or Himalayas. The entire country falls in a high earthquake intensity belt: almost the whole of Nepal falls in high seismic risk scale of MMI IX and Xi for the generally accepted recurrence period

-Nepal stands at 11^th position to Earthquake Vulnerability.

- Stands at 30^th position in Water Induced Disaster

Source: Report on Regional Co-operation among BIMSTEC Country for Disaster Reduction and Management

Recent study shows1 Nepal has and will have another earthquake in the future that is similar in magnitude to the recent Chilean earthquake - magnitude 8.8. This size of earthquake will not just double or triple the size of the magnitude 7.0 Haiti earthquake in terms of energy release, but [be] thousands of times larger.

In 1934, an 8.3 magnitude quake killed over 8,500 people in Kathmandu Valley. “Today, an earthquake of such magnitude could be catastrophic,” According to Amod Dixit, an expert on earthquake preparedness and director of the National Society for Expert Technology (NSET), a major local civic group involved in earthquake disaster education and seismic risk reduction projects.

According to a 2002 damage scenario by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) with Nepal’s Ministry of Home Affairs, a 7.5 magnitude quake in Kathmandu would result in at least 40,000 deaths and almost 100,000 injuries. Dozens of bridges linking the city could be knocked out, while much of the city’s health infrastructure would be destroyed. About 95 percent of water pipes could be damaged, and 40 percent of electricity lines and all electric substations destroyed. But the scenario was based on an estimated population of 1.5 million. Government estimates suggest the population has nearly doubled since then.

According to NSET and GeoHazards International (GHI), a US-based NGO which has conducted several surveys and research on earthquake risks in the country, a magnitude 7.5 or 8.0 quake today would kill more than 100,000 people, leave 500,000 injured and make 1.5 million homeless.

If Tribhuwan International, the country’s only international airport, were badly damaged, a quake-affected Kathmandu could well be cut off from immediate international assistance. Experts from the UN, international agencies, NGOs and the government are particularly worried about this, as it could make any response in this largely mountainous, landlocked nation slow, if not almost impossible. While Haiti’s Port-au-Prince has an active port, most assistance to Nepal would need to be brought in by air.

An inventory of past disastrous events during 1971-2006 reveals that epidemics takes the largest toll of life every year, and that landslide, flood (including the flash floods) and urban or rural fire are the principle hazards in terms of their extent and frequency of occurrence as well as the spread and intensity of physical and socio-economic impacts. Earthquake is a major potential hazard to reckon with – the country is located on an active seismic belt and the exponential urbanization trend over the past decade with general disregard of earthquake-resistant measures in building construction is the cause of ever-increasing earthquake risk.

Climate and weather-related disasters already affect croplands, livestock, homes and assets, food security and access to services, transport and communication. It reduces economic opportunity and increases poverty. Poor women and men bear the brunt of natural disasters and stand at the frontline of climate change.

Himalayan countries like Bhutan and Nepal and parts of India, Pakistan face the threat of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF). An expert study has identified 2,315 glacial lakes at an altitude above 3,500 m. Up to now, 15 GLOF events have been recorded in Nepal. Climate change induced glacial melting is responsible for the expansion of these glacial lakes as well as the formation of new ones and intensifies the danger of GLOF. Some 20 glacial lakes in Nepal have a high potential for GLOF. Studies show that these floods can be catastrophic and damages unprecedented. The damage by a single GLOF in Sunkoshi Valley in 1981 was US$ 3 million. Similarly, the estimated loss from the Dig Tsho GLOF to the nearly completed Namche Hydropower alone was US$ 1.5 million. This event damaged 14 bridges and a lot of cultivated land. Most devastatingly, it also cost many lives. If the frequency and intensity of GLOF increases due to climate change, Nepal is going to face even larger impacts in future. Both Nepal and Bhutan have identified GLOF as a priority that needs urgent focus.

Women in rural communities are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change. Limited access to resources and decision-making processes prevents many women in the region to use their knowledge and experience to respond effectively to the impacts of climate change. Increasing scarcity of water and reductions in biomass and crops puts further pressure on women, as securing water, food and energy for cooking and heating are largely deemed to be women’s responsibilities. Past experience has also shown that poor women tend to be disproportionately affected by natural disasters. Climate change adaptation needs to be gender responsive to address these issues and recognize women’s expertise in adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk reduction strategies.

Nepal is a hotspot for geophysical and climatic hazards. Among all the natural hazards, epidemics usually take the largest human toll in the country every year. The country is relatively ranked very high in terms of vulnerability to natural calamities. The risk is believed to be increasing very rapidly mainly due to the growth in population, especially in urban and urbanizing areas. Another major factor for the increasing risk is the lack of a favorable policy and legal environment commensurate with the present-day situation, needs, opportunities and resource availability.

Yet, the political and power players think they all have something else to do, whereas the challenge is knocking at the door. Nepal neither is prepared nor have the capacity to overcome the disaster that is likely hit the country within few years. The Koshi dam collapse and Jajarkot epidemic outbreak clearly indicates the country ability to address disaster.

Development approaches adopted in the country have exacerbated this situation. Poor people in the nation need resources to cope with this emerging disaster scenario. Even though the country is amongst the bottom quartile in the Human Development Index, the governments spend little on the development of human and social capital. A major shift in governance is needed in the reg. Risk levels and exposure is increasing due to ill-managed development and growth of populous centers in vulnerable locations. A review of root causes reveals some pertinent issues:

- Lack of development and implementation of disaster and climate risk reduction activities as a function of everyday governance

- Lack of planning, tools and funding to translate already identified adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures into demonstrable initiatives that make a real difference on the ground

- Lack of political and bureaucratic will, skill and resources to mainstream adaptation and disaster risk reduction fully into development planning.

Therefore the region’s policy makers, planners and climate negotiators need to:

- Ensure good governance in development and disaster risk reduction activities at all levels. Adaption cannot work in isolation. National adaptation programs must be an integral part of development as a whole. Nepal should not be satisfied with adaptation structures that aim to simply return the disaster risk scenario to a pre-climate change level. Adaptation needs to be integrated at a very high level of government planning in order to ensure low-risk, equitable human development and poverty alleviation

- Nepal’s development approach needs to make sense locally in order to reduce poverty and vulnerability. Both short and long-term measures are required to shift towards a better model of governance. Traditional governance systems with devolved and participatory decision making by women and men, capacity enhancement, respect for the environment and a cautious approach to consumption can serve as a template for addressing the new challenges

- Develop, seek, adopt and share environmentally sound technologies to skip the traditional development trajectory and allow for faster transition to a modern, low carbon society.

- Lobby for a climate adaptation financing framework that is external and additional to regular ODA targets and a mechanism for technology transfer that allows southern countries to decide on access, priorities and time frames

- Place additional pressure on Northern countries to agree to legally binding targets on emission reductions based on the latest science to prevent catastrophic climate change.

The escalation of the political conflict and the resulting internal displacement of population over the last decade have increased vulnerability and risk due to issues of security, population migration/displacement with deterioration of livelihood opportunities, restricted access and poor information flow. Whereas, Nepal being highly prone to hazards hence might experience its next tragedy very soon.

References:

National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management Nepal (final Draft), March 2008

The Report of Nepal presented on the Regional Co-operation among BIMSTEC Country for Disaster Reduction and Management on 30-3, October, 2006.

Global Assessment Report (GAR).

Practical Action Report

IPCC Report on Climate Change, 2009

[1] IRIN Report, April 2010

Guest Lecturer on media today

From an uncertain journalism college student to a grasping news reader to an entrepreneur empowering youth through social media, Dil Bhushan Pathak needs no introduction. Yet, when he came to our Development Communication class as a guest lecturer, I had sort of lost track post his decade long news reading career at Kantipur Television. I was familiar he was still in the media arena as his pictures and small interviews keep popping up in life style magazines of Kathmandu along with his wife, but I was unaware at how brilliantly he made the public conscious of social issues though animation, which works best for a country like Nepal, where more than two third of its population is illiterate.

After having a decent amount of experience at the television and for the desire to be an entrepreneur, and do something constructive on his own, Dil Bhushan Pathal moved on with the motive of promoting arts and rights through media. The company is called Interface Nepal and it has the involvement of highly experienced and creative independents from media houses. Founded by Dil Bhushan Pathak himself, Interface Nepal provides all types of media services using different mediums of print, radio, TV, drama and 3D technology. However, when he attended our class, he limited his lecture to animation that his company created. Probably because it was moving and also due to time constraint. It was a five minute documentary with various clippings about the Nepalese Constitution that lasted for a minute each. The advantage I saw was that it was short and it was in Nepali which would grasp the attention of the rural population and make them more alert about the issues surrounding our government. That is the charm about 3D animation in Nepal. Not only is it a powerful animation tool, but it also delivers information which grabs instant attention of a large audience including youth, the future of Nepal.

Though the press and radio are still very informative, the youth is more likely to be involved in technology related fields such as animation, documentaries and social networking websites on the internet these days. Even though they can go outside and buy a two rupees costing news paper, they will rather sit at home on their work station and log on to news reading websites and often post their opinions. For e.g, just yesterday on 18^th September, 2011 at 6:20 PM, Nepal witnessed a 6.8 Richter scale earth quake, which lasted for a minute and a half. Just five to ten minutes after the quake, many youth logged on to the infamous social networking website called Facebook. Not only were there thousands of status updates, ok not that I have that many friends on it, lets say hundreds of updates but also a group created by young people who shared the live news and updated about it in seconds. You can view the page here http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/18-September-2011-I-Survived-the-earthquake/194133360660204 as you might learn about some precautions for the future. After you hit the ‘like’ button, you can even contribute about the safety measures if you have any. That is the thing about social media. It hypes you up and not being a part of it, especially in this 21^st century will only make us oblivious, if not any dumber.

I am certain that even after this incident, Dil Bhushan Pathak will have a lot of things on his platter to work upon, whether it is making an earth quake related animation, contributing about its consequences on the press or updating his status for his five thousand followers on Facebook. I don’t know whether it was his far sightedness that led him to where he is today, or for his sheer interest in captivating the attention of the youth, Dil Bhushak Pathak has our votes. And I have a feeling, at least 90% of his motivation comes because of his wife, who also is a part of his professional life.

बीकास...???

Dear All,

Why is Nepal falling behind to achieve development outcomes? I am more interested to have your opinions on development paradigm in Nepal. In your opinion, where we need intervene to speed up development processes in this country?

Is "Development" Itself the cause of Nepal's problems?

Looking forward to hearing your food of thought in this regard

Proxyerror

UNCERTAIN FUTURE OF NEW LIBYA

For the past three weeks every media was buzzing with the ongoing six-month uprising, which is slowly subsiding with the termination of Moammar Gaddhafi’s forty-two year tyranny in Libya. And now onto the next phase, people are already wild guessing how the peace-process and nation building after anti-Gaddhafi Resistance would be laid out for the new Libya. While many remain positive that Libya would not fall flat on the promises it holds and believe that the rebel led National Transitional Council (NTC) have all it takes to avoid general unrest if the need be, there are still others who are not so hopeful.

If we look back at the past couple of decades, the history of uprising and war in Iraq, Egypt and Afghanistan, the history clearly indicates the sparing success the world has had with peace after the removal of a long-standing dictator or political force. Instead, confusion, chaos, violence, instability and suffering have been common successors to majority of such uprisings. Disillusionment and disappointment had ensued after the fall of the Taliban in 2001 in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein’s ruthless regime in 2003 in Iraq giving us explicit illustration of political incompetency. Unifying a distraught nation is easier said than done. After the fall of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt many foreign leaders and people dreaded the extremist rebellion followed by volatile society and chaos. That in part is being substantiated by periodic clashes between military and the Bedouin tribes. (Fahmy, 2011)

Incase of Libya, people are dubious because this is a country with 140 different tribes, bitter history of Eastern and Western Libya and Islamists radical fundamentalism. With many pro-Gaddhafi defectors among the rebels who will now be forming new inclusive-constitution, the pessimism among the interest groups remains unchanged. The burdens of broken economy is already making things difficult for the interim council to provide due care for the wounded. Amidst social disorder, proper accountability for the missing and refugees of uprising has become extremely complicated. To be able control the nation flooded with weapons while salvaging remaining infrastructure and pacifying probable inter-ethnic conflict along with popular need or assurance that one tyrant is not replaced by another, the peace process is not easy for Libya.

The July assassination of rebel commander Abdel Fatteh Younes has already sowed seeds of suspicion amongst the tribes and within the rebel leadership. (Crilly, 2011) The societal factions in Libya will be of severe concern for the Rebel-led forces to conquer once the country officially enters the next chapter of revolution, that is, the nation rebuilding. For now, Libya is at war and in need of swift fund to provide for basic utilities that could be met with unfreezing the assets of former dictator but since those frozen assets will have to pass through numerous unilateral and multilateral sanctions before landing in Libya, it is unlikely for those assets to return to Libyan people without reluctance. Whenever these types of assets change its ownership, it must pass through layers of conditions before it becomes eligible for transfer. So, the sanctions put up by The United Nations Security Council and its different U.N. member states is creating hurdles for the NTC. (Quinton, 2011) In truth, the fragility of rebel led council itself has become a concern for those asset holders abroad.

Middle East has always been crucial for American and European interests. Together they have been on a lookout for a nation to exemplify in Arab World in their terms for years and they would certainly prefer the rein of new Libya in the hands of one who may prove to be a reliable ally of the West. And with added worth of Libya as Africa’s top oil exporter,its foreign relation dynamics multifold. Moreover, in case of Libya we see another collaborator in the making: the Arab World who decisively had requested for outside intervention to oust Gaddhafi from the top post in Libya. (BBC, 2011) Thus, Libya is under extreme foreign scrutiny and to balance out the foreign relations will require a whole different set of diplomacy.

Looking at this crisis along the lines of Chinese and Russians, at least now would be the time to let NTC with the Libyans decide their own future without intervention. However, NATO forces that America heavily funds have remained instrumental to rebels' success on the grounds of Benghazi and Tripoli. (Bogdanov, 2011) With the kind of role NATO is playing in Libya, the intervention during regime change could fuel blame games further among the extremists.

Although uncertainty looms over the Libyan sky, today people are warming up to the ideas of the NTC led Libya. (BBC, 2011) Now, Rebels should focus on unity by fulfilling what has been assured by their Chairman in his speeches: “democratic government and fair constitution….with the representatives of the entire population of Libya”. (BBC, 2011) The interim administration of Libya and the NTC Chairman, Mustafa Abdel Jalil who once served as Libya’s Justice Minister has a lot in his plate. Surely, the foreign leaders and diplomats remain evermore watchful. (BBC, 2011) But they must respect if Libya decides to walk its path to resurrection alone. Hope, Libya defies uncalled for foreign interventions and becomes an example for other new struggling nations.

References:

BBC. (25 August 2011). Libya’s Conflict Retrieved on 25 August 2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14612570

Lindsay J.M. (22 August 2011). Libya Victory Celebrations are Premature. Retrieved on 25 August 2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/22/libyan-victory-celebrations-are-premature/

CNN Wire Staff. (12 May 2011). An Overview of Unrest in Syria and Libya. Retrieved on 25 August 2011, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-05-12/world/mideast.africa.unrest_1_security-forces-demonstrators-protests?_s=PM:WORLD

Zakaria F. (24 August 2011). Hope for Libya’s Future. Retrieved on 25 August 2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/24/hope-for-libyas-future/

BBC. (22 August 2011). Libya Crisis: Profile of NTC Chair Mustafa Abdul Jalil. Retrieved on 25 August 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14613679

Fahmy M.F. (24 August 2011). Egypt’s Wild West. Retrieved on 25 August 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/24/egypts_wild_west

Bogdanov K. (26 August 2011). NATO Troops in Libya: No Entry, No Exit. Retrieved on 28 August 2011, http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20110826/166211240.html

Marcus J. (15 April 2011). NATO and Libya: What Now? Retrieved on 28 August 2011,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13094480

Boot M. (24 August 2011). Libya’s Problems Are Far From Over. Retrieved on 28 August 2011, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/24/opinion/la-oe-boot-libya-20110824

Fried J. (25 March 2011). A Divided Unity Over Libya. Retrieved on 28 August 2011, http://pennpoliticalreview.org/2011/03/a-divided-unity-over-libya/

Stanley T. (25 August 2011). Obama’s War in Libya Might Be Wasteful and Naïve- But it’s Liberal, Not Neocon. Retrieved on 28 August 2011, http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100102140/obamas-war-in-libya-might-be-wasteful-and-naive-but-its-liberal-not-neocon/

Crilly R. (26 August 2011). Colonel Gaddhafi Is On The Run, But The Tribal Splits Threaten Libya’s Rebel Movement. Retrieved on 28 August 2011, http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/robcrilly/100102270/gaddafi-is-on-the-run-but-tribal-splits-threaten-libyas-rebel-movement/

Quinton S. (Updated on 27 August 2011). Libya’s Fog of Frozen Assets. Retrieved on 28 August 2011, http://www.nationaljournal.com/nationalsecurity/libya-s-fog-of-frozen-assets-20110825

BBC. (24 August 2011). Tripoli Resident: Watching For Snipers. Retrieved on 28 August 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14648718