Experts in Nepal have expressed concern over levels of earthquake preparedness after the recent disaster in Haiti. According to experts, the main source of seismic activity in Nepal is the seduction of the Indian plate under the Tibetan plate or Himalayas. The entire country falls in a high earthquake intensity belt: almost the whole of Nepal falls in high seismic risk scale of MMI IX and Xi for the generally accepted recurrence period
-Nepal stands at 11th position to Earthquake Vulnerability.
- Stands at 30th position in Water Induced Disaster
Source: Report on Regional Co-operation among BIMSTEC Country for Disaster Reduction and Management
Recent study shows1 Nepal has and will have another earthquake in the future that is similar in magnitude to the recent Chilean earthquake - magnitude 8.8. This size of earthquake will not just double or triple the size of the magnitude 7.0 Haiti earthquake in terms of energy release, but [be] thousands of times larger.
In 1934, an 8.3 magnitude quake killed over 8,500 people in Kathmandu Valley. “Today, an earthquake of such magnitude could be catastrophic,” According to Amod Dixit, an expert on earthquake preparedness and director of the National Society for Expert Technology (NSET), a major local civic group involved in earthquake disaster education and seismic risk reduction projects.
According to a 2002 damage scenario by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) with Nepal’s Ministry of Home Affairs, a 7.5 magnitude quake in Kathmandu would result in at least 40,000 deaths and almost 100,000 injuries. Dozens of bridges linking the city could be knocked out, while much of the city’s health infrastructure would be destroyed. About 95 percent of water pipes could be damaged, and 40 percent of electricity lines and all electric substations destroyed. But the scenario was based on an estimated population of 1.5 million. Government estimates suggest the population has nearly doubled since then.
According to NSET and GeoHazards International (GHI), a US-based NGO which has conducted several surveys and research on earthquake risks in the country, a magnitude 7.5 or 8.0 quake today would kill more than 100,000 people, leave 500,000 injured and make 1.5 million homeless.
If Tribhuwan International, the country’s only international airport, were badly damaged, a quake-affected Kathmandu could well be cut off from immediate international assistance. Experts from the UN, international agencies, NGOs and the government are particularly worried about this, as it could make any response in this largely mountainous, landlocked nation slow, if not almost impossible. While Haiti’s Port-au-Prince has an active port, most assistance to Nepal would need to be brought in by air.
An inventory of past disastrous events during 1971-2006 reveals that epidemics takes the largest toll of life every year, and that landslide, flood (including the flash floods) and urban or rural fire are the principle hazards in terms of their extent and frequency of occurrence as well as the spread and intensity of physical and socio-economic impacts. Earthquake is a major potential hazard to reckon with – the country is located on an active seismic belt and the exponential urbanization trend over the past decade with general disregard of earthquake-resistant measures in building construction is the cause of ever-increasing earthquake risk.
Climate and weather-related disasters already affect croplands, livestock, homes and assets, food security and access to services, transport and communication. It reduces economic opportunity and increases poverty. Poor women and men bear the brunt of natural disasters and stand at the frontline of climate change.
Himalayan countries like Bhutan and Nepal and parts of India, Pakistan face the threat of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF). An expert study has identified 2,315 glacial lakes at an altitude above 3,500 m. Up to now, 15 GLOF events have been recorded in Nepal. Climate change induced glacial melting is responsible for the expansion of these glacial lakes as well as the formation of new ones and intensifies the danger of GLOF. Some 20 glacial lakes in Nepal have a high potential for GLOF. Studies show that these floods can be catastrophic and damages unprecedented. The damage by a single GLOF in Sunkoshi Valley in 1981 was US$ 3 million. Similarly, the estimated loss from the Dig Tsho GLOF to the nearly completed Namche Hydropower alone was US$ 1.5 million. This event damaged 14 bridges and a lot of cultivated land. Most devastatingly, it also cost many lives. If the frequency and intensity of GLOF increases due to climate change, Nepal is going to face even larger impacts in future. Both Nepal and Bhutan have identified GLOF as a priority that needs urgent focus.
Women in rural communities are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change. Limited access to resources and decision-making processes prevents many women in the region to use their knowledge and experience to respond effectively to the impacts of climate change. Increasing scarcity of water and reductions in biomass and crops puts further pressure on women, as securing water, food and energy for cooking and heating are largely deemed to be women’s responsibilities. Past experience has also shown that poor women tend to be disproportionately affected by natural disasters. Climate change adaptation needs to be gender responsive to address these issues and recognize women’s expertise in adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk reduction strategies.
Nepal is a hotspot for geophysical and climatic hazards. Among all the natural hazards, epidemics usually take the largest human toll in the country every year. The country is relatively ranked very high in terms of vulnerability to natural calamities. The risk is believed to be increasing very rapidly mainly due to the growth in population, especially in urban and urbanizing areas. Another major factor for the increasing risk is the lack of a favorable policy and legal environment commensurate with the present-day situation, needs, opportunities and resource availability.
Yet, the political and power players think they all have something else to do, whereas the challenge is knocking at the door. Nepal neither is prepared nor have the capacity to overcome the disaster that is likely hit the country within few years. The Koshi dam collapse and Jajarkot epidemic outbreak clearly indicates the country ability to address disaster.
Development approaches adopted in the country have exacerbated this situation. Poor people in the nation need resources to cope with this emerging disaster scenario. Even though the country is amongst the bottom quartile in the Human Development Index, the governments spend little on the development of human and social capital. A major shift in governance is needed in the reg. Risk levels and exposure is increasing due to ill-managed development and growth of populous centers in vulnerable locations. A review of root causes reveals some pertinent issues:
- Lack of development and implementation of disaster and climate risk reduction activities as a function of everyday governance
- Lack of planning, tools and funding to translate already identified adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures into demonstrable initiatives that make a real difference on the ground
- Lack of political and bureaucratic will, skill and resources to mainstream adaptation and disaster risk reduction fully into development planning.
Therefore the region’s policy makers, planners and climate negotiators need to:
- Ensure good governance in development and disaster risk reduction activities at all levels. Adaption cannot work in isolation. National adaptation programs must be an integral part of development as a whole. Nepal should not be satisfied with adaptation structures that aim to simply return the disaster risk scenario to a pre-climate change level. Adaptation needs to be integrated at a very high level of government planning in order to ensure low-risk, equitable human development and poverty alleviation
- Nepal’s development approach needs to make sense locally in order to reduce poverty and vulnerability. Both short and long-term measures are required to shift towards a better model of governance. Traditional governance systems with devolved and participatory decision making by women and men, capacity enhancement, respect for the environment and a cautious approach to consumption can serve as a template for addressing the new challenges
- Develop, seek, adopt and share environmentally sound technologies to skip the traditional development trajectory and allow for faster transition to a modern, low carbon society.
- Lobby for a climate adaptation financing framework that is external and additional to regular ODA targets and a mechanism for technology transfer that allows southern countries to decide on access, priorities and time frames
- Place additional pressure on Northern countries to agree to legally binding targets on emission reductions based on the latest science to prevent catastrophic climate change.
The escalation of the political conflict and the resulting internal displacement of population over the last decade have increased vulnerability and risk due to issues of security, population migration/displacement with deterioration of livelihood opportunities, restricted access and poor information flow. Whereas, Nepal being highly prone to hazards hence might experience its next tragedy very soon.
References:
National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management Nepal (final Draft), March 2008
The Report of Nepal presented on the Regional Co-operation among BIMSTEC Country for Disaster Reduction and Management on 30-3, October, 2006.
Global Assessment Report (GAR).
Practical Action Report
IPCC Report on Climate Change, 2009
It is obvious that government of Nepal is incapable to cope with, if a major natural disaster hit the country. If an earthquake similar to 1934 (8.3 magnitude) knocked Nepal today, the damage would be unimaginable. In this situation, I think people should be aware at individual level too. Particularly in urban areas the rate of construction of building has been rocketing. People spend the savings of their whole life to build a house, even then they hesitate to increase small amount of money to make their house earthquake resistant. So, due to lack of awareness people themselves are inviting risk. It’s time to think seriously about the safety and preparedness of natural disasters at individual level also.
ReplyDeleteApad Bibad Baja Bajayara Audaina, this public saying is sufficient to understand the characteristic of natural disaster. As we do not know about the nature of disaster in advance, the best alternative is preparedness against the potential risk. The most casualties are often either due to lack of awareness or carelessness. The people who live thatch houses in rural areas may need awareness BUT those who spend millions in multistory buildings is simply due to carelessness. After the last earthquake, my neighbor (who just completed his house) reacted, "If I were realized this before, I will ready to invest for earthquake resistant measure even by compromising one story less." This earthquake, of course, has increased the realization for individual and government and this is a positive signal to step towards preparedness. In my opinion, the lesson from the last quake must be seen in application by self preparedness and pressure for government to come up with solid policy and programmes.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion,Nepal in a slow pace is moving ahead to address the issue of climate change. Meeting held at kala Pathar of Mount Everest recently after the Copenhegan Summit is a good initiative taken by Nepal to address climate change but the major tragedy remains here is, organizers often fail to inform the public why such events are organized which further effects in policy implementation.
ReplyDeleteIf an earthquake of 8.3 magnitude hit Nepal, Kathmandu will suffer the most. Through disaster preparedness we can minimize the potential risk to some extent but even then the disaster is going to be unimaginable. The way the buildings are being constructed in Kathmandu and other cities clearly show that it is already too late. There are more buildings than people in Kathmandu valley. People are aware that their anti-environmental activities will lead to disaster and they are the ones who will suffer at the end. But even then they ain't ready to change their behavior. As far as, government policies are concerned, I think we have more than enough already. We don't need any more policies and programs to save Nepal from the potential disaster risk, if the previous formulated policies and programs will be implemented properly.
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting. It is an informative one.
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ReplyDelete“Sunday’s earthquake was the big earthquake that was suppose to hit Nepal, now another big one is not likely to occur for the next 50 years or so “.
ReplyDeleteThese were the lines quoted by one of the renowned bureaucrats. I would not like to name him in order to maintain the political neutrality of this blog. When faced with tragedy, we humans, it appears, have a wonderful way of dealing with it. , Denial. Information is selected to fit existing perceptual frames and information which is too threatening is avoided altogether. Same is the case people know that Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries in terms of occurrence of Earthquake and Water related disasters, but still we are unwilling to change our behaviors. We are still building houses without following earthquake resistant measures, Government is least bothered about unplanned urbanization being practiced in the major cities of Nepal, Bridges linking the major cities are still in bad shape, National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET) comes up with various new lavish plans now and then but those plans are always limited to the papers only. Thus better than denying, we should act in order to combat the possible disaster. As a citizen we should not always wait for government to initiate some thing, on a personal level also we can contribute like by following earthquake resistant measures while building our houses, schools can make their students practice earthquake drills etc.
So, lets take Sundays earthquake as a quake up call and look forward through the fog of denial before it’s too late?
Nepal, as we learned, falls under disaster prone region. We can't help it. But what we Nepalese can do is be prepared for any upcoming natural disasters. We all should have the knowledge of disaster preparedness. We should improve our ability to deal with crises. Also, we should build houses, schools and hospitals that can withstand earthquakes, floods and landslides. And our government should be strong enough to respond, create disaster management plans and educate people about disaster risks.
ReplyDeleteWE CAN'T STOP NATURAL DISASTER WHICH ARE DUE TO NATURAL PHENOMENA, BUT WE CAN SAVE MILLION OF LIVES THROUGH WELL DEVELOPED PREPAREDNESS PLAN. THANK YOU ALL FOR CONTRIBUTING TO THE POST.
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