For the past three weeks every media was buzzing with the ongoing six-month uprising, which is slowly subsiding with the termination of Moammar Gaddhafi’s forty-two year tyranny in Libya. And now onto the next phase, people are already wild guessing how the peace-process and nation building after anti-Gaddhafi Resistance would be laid out for the new Libya. While many remain positive that Libya would not fall flat on the promises it holds and believe that the rebel led National Transitional Council (NTC) have all it takes to avoid general unrest if the need be, there are still others who are not so hopeful.
If we look back at the past couple of decades, the history of uprising and war in Iraq, Egypt and Afghanistan, the history clearly indicates the sparing success the world has had with peace after the removal of a long-standing dictator or political force. Instead, confusion, chaos, violence, instability and suffering have been common successors to majority of such uprisings. Disillusionment and disappointment had ensued after the fall of the Taliban in 2001 in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein’s ruthless regime in 2003 in Iraq giving us explicit illustration of political incompetency. Unifying a distraught nation is easier said than done. After the fall of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt many foreign leaders and people dreaded the extremist rebellion followed by volatile society and chaos. That in part is being substantiated by periodic clashes between military and the Bedouin tribes. (Fahmy, 2011)
Incase of Libya, people are dubious because this is a country with 140 different tribes, bitter history of Eastern and Western Libya and Islamists radical fundamentalism. With many pro-Gaddhafi defectors among the rebels who will now be forming new inclusive-constitution, the pessimism among the interest groups remains unchanged. The burdens of broken economy is already making things difficult for the interim council to provide due care for the wounded. Amidst social disorder, proper accountability for the missing and refugees of uprising has become extremely complicated. To be able control the nation flooded with weapons while salvaging remaining infrastructure and pacifying probable inter-ethnic conflict along with popular need or assurance that one tyrant is not replaced by another, the peace process is not easy for Libya.
The July assassination of rebel commander Abdel Fatteh Younes has already sowed seeds of suspicion amongst the tribes and within the rebel leadership. (Crilly, 2011) The societal factions in Libya will be of severe concern for the Rebel-led forces to conquer once the country officially enters the next chapter of revolution, that is, the nation rebuilding. For now, Libya is at war and in need of swift fund to provide for basic utilities that could be met with unfreezing the assets of former dictator but since those frozen assets will have to pass through numerous unilateral and multilateral sanctions before landing in Libya, it is unlikely for those assets to return to Libyan people without reluctance. Whenever these types of assets change its ownership, it must pass through layers of conditions before it becomes eligible for transfer. So, the sanctions put up by The United Nations Security Council and its different U.N. member states is creating hurdles for the NTC. (Quinton, 2011) In truth, the fragility of rebel led council itself has become a concern for those asset holders abroad.
Middle East has always been crucial for American and European interests. Together they have been on a lookout for a nation to exemplify in Arab World in their terms for years and they would certainly prefer the rein of new Libya in the hands of one who may prove to be a reliable ally of the West. And with added worth of Libya as Africa’s top oil exporter,its foreign relation dynamics multifold. Moreover, in case of Libya we see another collaborator in the making: the Arab World who decisively had requested for outside intervention to oust Gaddhafi from the top post in Libya. (BBC, 2011) Thus, Libya is under extreme foreign scrutiny and to balance out the foreign relations will require a whole different set of diplomacy.
Looking at this crisis along the lines of Chinese and Russians, at least now would be the time to let NTC with the Libyans decide their own future without intervention. However, NATO forces that America heavily funds have remained instrumental to rebels' success on the grounds of Benghazi and Tripoli. (Bogdanov, 2011) With the kind of role NATO is playing in Libya, the intervention during regime change could fuel blame games further among the extremists.
Although uncertainty looms over the Libyan sky, today people are warming up to the ideas of the NTC led Libya. (BBC, 2011) Now, Rebels should focus on unity by fulfilling what has been assured by their Chairman in his speeches: “democratic government and fair constitution….with the representatives of the entire population of Libya”. (BBC, 2011) The interim administration of Libya and the NTC Chairman, Mustafa Abdel Jalil who once served as Libya’s Justice Minister has a lot in his plate. Surely, the foreign leaders and diplomats remain evermore watchful. (BBC, 2011) But they must respect if Libya decides to walk its path to resurrection alone. Hope, Libya defies uncalled for foreign interventions and becomes an example for other new struggling nations.
References:
BBC. (25 August 2011). Libya’s Conflict Retrieved on 25 August 2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14612570
Lindsay J.M. (22 August 2011). Libya Victory Celebrations are Premature. Retrieved on 25 August 2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/22/libyan-victory-celebrations-are-premature/
CNN Wire Staff. (12 May 2011). An Overview of Unrest in Syria and Libya. Retrieved on 25 August 2011, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-05-12/world/mideast.africa.unrest_1_security-forces-demonstrators-protests?_s=PM:WORLD
Zakaria F. (24 August 2011). Hope for Libya’s Future. Retrieved on 25 August 2011, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/24/hope-for-libyas-future/
BBC. (22 August 2011). Libya Crisis: Profile of NTC Chair Mustafa Abdul Jalil. Retrieved on 25 August 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14613679
Fahmy M.F. (24 August 2011). Egypt’s Wild West. Retrieved on 25 August 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/24/egypts_wild_west
Bogdanov K. (26 August 2011). NATO Troops in Libya: No Entry, No Exit. Retrieved on 28 August 2011, http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20110826/166211240.html
Marcus J. (15 April 2011). NATO and Libya: What Now? Retrieved on 28 August 2011,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13094480
Boot M. (24 August 2011). Libya’s Problems Are Far From Over. Retrieved on 28 August 2011, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/24/opinion/la-oe-boot-libya-20110824
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Stanley T. (25 August 2011). Obama’s War in Libya Might Be Wasteful and Naïve- But it’s Liberal, Not Neocon. Retrieved on 28 August 2011, http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100102140/obamas-war-in-libya-might-be-wasteful-and-naive-but-its-liberal-not-neocon/
Crilly R. (26 August 2011). Colonel Gaddhafi Is On The Run, But The Tribal Splits Threaten Libya’s Rebel Movement. Retrieved on 28 August 2011, http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/robcrilly/100102270/gaddafi-is-on-the-run-but-tribal-splits-threaten-libyas-rebel-movement/
Quinton S. (Updated on 27 August 2011). Libya’s Fog of Frozen Assets. Retrieved on 28 August 2011, http://www.nationaljournal.com/nationalsecurity/libya-s-fog-of-frozen-assets-20110825
BBC. (24 August 2011). Tripoli Resident: Watching For Snipers. Retrieved on 28 August 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14648718
very interesting piece
ReplyDeleteDo you see oil politics having any role in the future of the country?
XYZ
A very good topic
ReplyDeleteThe question is not that why suddenly somebody (ie.the Nations engaged for war) got too interested in Middle East Libya. But perhaps the creative question would be Why not the fight for freedom started earlier. Might be the right time would be now.
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ReplyDeleteRebels should focus on unity by fulfilling what has been assured by their Chairman in his speeches: “democratic government and fair constitution….with the representatives of the entire population of Libya”. (BBC, 2011)....Can this lead uncertain future of New Libya to the new path by changing and fulling the things? Who are the Rebels then..
ReplyDeleteWhen I was in middle east (Jordan) recently, I got to read a few articles related to Libya tensions that might provide different point of view to look at Libya conflict. The newspaper article and people's perception indicated to a fact that Libya had nice arrangements for education and health, and of course, good infrastructure. Even higher education in foreign country and tertiary health facilities used to be financed entirely by government for any of Libyan citizen. In this background, it is clear that the base for Libyan conflict is not in development problem or poverty rather it is a fight for freedom. Libya never suffered from political instability in recent past and always remained rich. only a handful of people are rich. The corruption and wealth compilation of Gaddhafi is equivalent to almost all of the dictators that the history has ever seen. The freedom of people has been seriously curtailed. Though Gaddhafi was elected as persident, he never gave up the position and ruled by force. His sons and relatives also became rulers. So, regardless of who led the agitation and what might be the consequence, the fight for democracy is justifiable.
ReplyDeleteWhen the news is related with these oil rich countries, the contest is primarily for oil. ALl these alliances (mosty western powerful states) supporting the freedom fighters will start pushing for privatizing the oil sector and if they fail in that direction they will ask for more oil fields to be opened up for their domestic oil digging companies.
ReplyDeleteLibyans might feel better in the future with their new found freedom but the actual fight will include, how future "democratic" governments will deal with the pressure from their "war time" western alliance partners on a number of economic issues which will be certainly related with Libya's rich oil reserves. BP and Exxon mobil are already major players in this field. Instead of domestic companies digging and increasing employment opportunities, futre leaders in Libya might surrneder to their western allies, thereby, foregiong chances for broad based and inclusive growth.
Yes, that is one angle to look at the conflict in Libya but i think this perspective came as a result of suspicion. The supporters of Gaddhafi also came up with these claims to reduce agitation. One of the important aspects that we need to consider here is the immediate cause. The joint support of almost all countries would not have been possible if the mission was entirely related to oil. Whatever the reason might be, the democratic country will be better placed to resist foreign intervention and interest than autocratic government. Democracy will give chances for people to actually raise question against government on its policies and even, foreign relations.
ReplyDeleteIt is not just one angle. It is the single most important angle. The fight for oil has continued on for several decades as in Kuwait and Iraq. Furthermore, the way NATO provided the rebels with all those weapons reminds me of how the CIA supplied the Taliban with anti-aircraft missiles to repel the Soviet era Russians.
ReplyDeleteIt is usually presumed that democracy will give voice to the people but a democracy where a certain secion of the population has modern guns and missiles seems to be a time bomb to me and a ploy to destabalize the whole region. Disability will ensure that people will have their voices but at the cost of millions of more lives in the future.
Here comes the fundamental question: do we want autocratic government to rule Libya or any other country just for the sake of suspicion that US and alliance countries might exploit its oil reserves? Why are we undermining the large amount of money that Gaddhafi and his family accumulated out of the same oil reserve? It depends on performance of future government of Libya. There is no other alternative than having democratic government which is accountable and transparent to people. If Gaddhafi loves his country and people, and is aware about the oil factor, why can't he promote democratic government? This will give no chance for westerners to interfere. Blaming global world wont solve the problem in Libya.
ReplyDeleteThe autocratic government of Libya was challenged at the beginning by people, rebels and ordinary Libyans alike. Both were out there in the streets of their towns and cities. Of course Gaddhafi did what autocratic rulers usually do when they know they are in deep trouble. NATO supplied the rebels with arms after Gaddhafi took violence as a measure to control the people.
ReplyDeleteThe fundamental question is whether the allaince supported "democratic outcome" was truely managed by the ordinary people alongside the rebels or will the rebels take full credit? There is vast difference beween democracy that was indigenously attained and one attained solely due to outside force. The latter can be compared to development projects in the poor counties, which start loosing their value as soon as development partners pull out their support.
Yes, that is the point. I agree with the point that there is also a risk that the democracy attained after such cold conflict might not be democratic one. Yes, we need to consider all various reasons that might have influenced NATO's involvement but at the same time, we need to believe that democracy can only be the long run solution. Lets get views from other friends. The question that needs to be answered is: how a full-fledged democracy can be attained in a country which has been ruled by autocratic ruler?
ReplyDeleteI believe that the Libya's uprising is against the 'unfreedoms' that the people had for years. If we recall the things that we learnt in Amartya Sen's 'Development As Freedom' and try to connect with the situation of Libya, I think, it resembles to a significant extent. As Jeevan said, despite proper arrangement of health and education services and high degree of infrastructural development people raised voices against autocracy and came out to end the erratic leadership of Gaddhafi. This is all due to the people's quest for substantive human freedom which has shown yet another example of power and strength in people's movement.
ReplyDeleteWell written article!
ReplyDeleteI also do believe Libya has a long way to go to make their visualization a reality. In my opinion west has always had interest in Middle-East. Although Libya is in Africa it still has ‘oil’ so it makes it a prime target. It was suspected, when Mujahedeen was rebelling against Russia in Afghanistan, American intelligence were helping them in supplying weapons and training. Likewise, every western country in the world is willing to supply weapons to Libyan rebels. They would not have supplied weapons to them if they didn’t have interest in resources of the country.
Nepalese Maoist is still categorized as ‘terrorist’ by West although maoists have came to mainline politics of Nepal. Whereas, same countries are ready to hand weapons to rebels of Libya and are categorized as ‘freedom fighters’. This shows that West has conflicting interest among countries.
Like it is written in the article Libyan new government won’t function until its interest meets the interest of the Western countries. Transition will be a very long process for Libya.